Polymarket is pricing this contract at 17¢ (17% implied probability). Resolves January 1, 2028. This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of (1) whether the Democratic Party wins control of both the United States House of Representatives and the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election and (2) whether the US federal government takes a
| Platform | Cents | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 17¢ | 17% | $3K |
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of (1) whether the Democratic Party wins control of both the United States House of Representatives and the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election and (2) whether the US federal government takes a stake in OpenAI or Anthropic by the end of 2027. Options beginning "Dem sweep" require the Democratic Party to win control of both chambers. Options beginning "No Dem sweep" require the Democratic Party not to win control of at least one of the two chambers. Each option then names the result of the second component ("US stake" or "No US stake"), as defined below. The option matching both results will resolve to "Yes", and all other options will resolve to "No". US stake in OpenAI or Anthropic: This component is "US stake" if the U.S. federal government takes a stake in OpenAI or Anthropic between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it is "No US stake". Takes a stake refers to the U.S. federal government acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, convertible rights treated as equity, or equiv