Polymarket is pricing this contract at 12¢ (12% implied probability). Resolves July 1, 2027. On October 9, 2026, Donald Trump announced an agreement with Vladimir Putin to import Russian diesel fuel, and the United States Treasury issued General License 135 authorizing the importation of Russian-origin diesel fuel into the United States through April 7, 2027 (see: https:
| Platform | Cents | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 12¢ | 12% | $8K |
On October 9, 2026, Donald Trump announced an agreement with Vladimir Putin to import Russian diesel fuel, and the United States Treasury issued General License 135 authorizing the importation of Russian-origin diesel fuel into the United States through April 7, 2027 (see: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/117412435306815143 & https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20261009_33). This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russian diesel fuel is imported to the United States before Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If Russian diesel fuel is imported to the United States before Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place before Russian diesel fuel is imported to the United States, this market will resolve to “No”. If neither an import of Russian diesel fuel to the United States nor Russia x Ukraine peace talks occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Only imports of Russian diesel fuel to the United States after market creation will be considered. Russian diesel fuel refers to diesel fuel of Russian production o