Polymarket is pricing this contract at 8¢ (8% implied probability). Resolves July 1, 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if a NATO military downs another Russian drone before Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place.
| Platform | Cents | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 8¢ | 8% | $6K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a NATO military downs another Russian drone before Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If neither a NATO military downing a Russian drone nor Russia x Ukraine peace talks occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. If a NATO military downs another Russian drone before Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place before a NATO military downs another Russian drone, this market will resolve to “No”. A NATO military will be considered to have downed another Russian drone if a NATO member’s military downs a Russian drone by any means (kinetic, jammer, etc.) after market creation. A “Russian drone” refers to any drone that, based on a consensus of credible reporting, was launched from territory under Russia’s de facto control or was operated or directed by Russian forces. Where attribution remains ambiguous, the drone’s model and characteristics will be considered supporting evidence. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus