Polymarket is pricing this contract at 4¢ (4% implied probability). Resolves January 1, 2027. Since February 5, 2023, the European Union has prohibited the import of Russian petroleum products, including diesel fuel, under Council Regulation (EU) No 833/2014 (see: https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/sanctions-against-russia/).
| Platform | Cents | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 4¢ | 4% | $4K |
Since February 5, 2023, the European Union has prohibited the import of Russian petroleum products, including diesel fuel, under Council Regulation (EU) No 833/2014 (see: https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/sanctions-against-russia/). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Council of the European Union adopts a decision, regulation, or equivalent sanctions-relief action lifting the EU’s ban on imports of Russian diesel fuel, or if the Court of Justice of the European Union annuls that ban, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. Actions which provide partial or full relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, suspend, or terminate the prohibition on the import of Russian diesel fuel into the European Union under Council Regulation (EU) No 833/2014, in whole or in part. Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions will qualify. If the prohibition lapses because it is not renewed by the Council, this will also qualify. Changes to the price cap on Russian petroleum products, including its level, suspension, or removal, will not qualify. Renewals or extensio