Polymarket is pricing this contract at 26¢ (26% implied probability). Resolves December 1, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pakistan takes a qualifying military action against Afghanistan between this market’s creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Afghanistan Time (AFT).
| Platform | Cents | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 26¢ | 26% | $56K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pakistan takes a qualifying military action against Afghanistan between this market’s creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Afghanistan Time (AFT). Otherwise this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Pakistan, that directly impacts Afghanistan. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of Pakistan. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, or proxy forces will not qualify. Where a qualifying action is carried out in the course of a coalition or multinational operation, it will qualify only if the armed forces of Pakistan directly conducted the strike. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Nava