Polymarket is pricing this contract at 5¢ (5% implied probability). Resolves December 31, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany takes a qualifying military action against Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM Yemen Standard Time.
| Platform | Cents | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 5¢ | 5% | $7K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany takes a qualifying military action against Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM Yemen Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action by any one of France, the United Kingdom, or Germany will be sufficient for this market to resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by France, the United Kingdom, or Germany, that directly impacts Yemen. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of France, the United Kingdom, or Germany. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, or proxy forces will not qualify. Where a qualifying action is carried out in the course of a coalition or multinational operation, it will qualify only if the armed forces of France, the United Kingdom, or Germany directly conducted the strike. The following acti