Polymarket is pricing this contract at 7¢ (7% implied probability). Resolves January 1, 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey takes a qualifying military action against Yemen between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Yemen Standard Time.
| Platform | Cents | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 7¢ | 7% | $5K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey takes a qualifying military action against Yemen between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Yemen Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Turkey, that directly impacts Yemen. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of Turkey. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, or proxy forces will not qualify. Where a qualifying action is carried out in the course of a coalition or multinational operation, it will qualify only if the armed forces of Turkey directly conducted the strike. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery