StreetSpread · Technology · Polymarket

Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by December 31, 2026?

Technology Resolves January 1, 2027 Polymarket

Polymarket is pricing this contract at 92¢ (92% implied probability). Resolves January 1, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Z.ai's next GLM model (5.4+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET).

Live price

PlatformCentsImpliedVolume
Polymarket92¢92%$861

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Z.ai's next GLM model (5.4+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be part of Z.ai's core GLM series, have a name or model identifier that includes "GLM," and be designated as a version greater than 5.3, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version greater than 5.3 named in the same manner as GLM-5.2 or GLM-5.3 would qualify, including versions that skip numbers, such as GLM-5.5 or GLM-6, while models with a version designation of 5.3 or below, or derivative models not positioned as the next flagship GLM release, such as GLM-5.3-Turbo, will not qualify. Staged rollouts of a model already publicly accessible before market creation, such as the open-weight or API release of GLM-5.3, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined

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