Polymarket is pricing this contract at 13¢ (13% implied probability). Resolves January 1, 2027. On October 1, 2026, Reuters reported that the United States had told France and Germany to release emergency diesel stocks or face a potential US diesel export ban, as Washington presses European countries to draw down their reserves to ease record diesel prices.
| Platform | Cents | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 13¢ | 13% | $7K |
On October 1, 2026, Reuters reported that the United States had told France and Germany to release emergency diesel stocks or face a potential US diesel export ban, as Washington presses European countries to draw down their reserves to ease record diesel prices. You can read more about that here: [https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-tells-france-germany-release-diesel-stocks-or-face-us-export-ban-sources-say-2026-10-01/](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-tells-france-germany-release-diesel-stocks-or-face-us-export-ban-sources-say-2026-10-01/) This market will resolve to "Yes" if the International Energy Agency (IEA) requests that Germany release emergency oil stocks between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying request may take either of the following forms: (i) the IEA Member countries formally agree to a new coordinated emergency release of oil stocks (an IEA collective action) within the market's timeframe, under which Germany is requested, allocated, or assigned a contribution of emergency oil stocks; or (ii) the IEA, its Executive Director, or an authorized re