Polymarket is pricing this contract at 14¢ (14% implied probability). Resolves December 31, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
| Platform | Cents | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 14¢ | 14% | $334K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.