Polymarket is pricing this contract at 5¢ (5% implied probability). Resolves January 1, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Andrew Tate is released from government custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
| Platform | Cents | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 5¢ | 5% | $130K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Andrew Tate is released from government custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Tate is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Tate is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Andrew Tate to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release. Extradition or transfer to a different jurisdiction of custody will not qualify as a release from custody. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.