Polymarket is pricing this contract at 3¢ (3% implied probability). Resolves July 31, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jordan Bardella leaves the National Rally by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
| Platform | Cents | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 3¢ | 3% | $1K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jordan Bardella leaves the National Rally by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes leaving the National Rally, affiliating with any other political party, or renouncing National Rally and becoming an independent. An official announcement from Bardella stating that he is leaving National Rally will qualify, regardless of when the change takes effect. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify. The primary resolution source will be an official announcement from Bardella or National Rally. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.