Polymarket is pricing this contract at 7¢ (7% implied probability). Resolves January 1, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Turkish troops enter any part of Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
| Platform | Cents | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 7¢ | 7% | $2K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Turkish troops enter any part of Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Turkish troops" refers to active military personnel officially affiliated with Turkey. Only members of the regular armed forces of Turkey will qualify. Foreign fighters, private military contractors, mercenaries, or any other personnel recruited, paid, trained, equipped or directed by Turkey who are not members of the Turkish armed forces will not qualify, regardless of whether they operate under Turkish command or on Turkey’s behalf. Members of the armed forces of any other state, including those operating as part of a Turkish-led coalition, will not qualify. "Enter" means that the Turkish troops, even temporarily, deliberately operate within any part of Yemen, other than as prisoners of war or as emissaries as described below. Bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim of Turkish troop entry will not qualify without actual entry being established. The entrance of Turkish emissar