Polymarket is pricing this contract at 2¢ (2% implied probability). Resolves January 1, 2027. On January 24, President Trump announced that the United States would apply a 100% tariff to all imports from Canada if a trade deal with China goes through.
| Platform | Cents | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 2¢ | 2% | $15K |
On January 24, President Trump announced that the United States would apply a 100% tariff to all imports from Canada if a trade deal with China goes through. (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-threatens-canada-with-100-tariff-over-possible-deal-with-china-2026-01-24/). This market will resolve to “Yes” if an increase in the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from Canada goes into effect for any amount of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date of the tariffs (as set by legislation or executive action) must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but not yet gone into effect will not be considered. Only tariffs specifically targeting Canada will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution. The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all import