Polymarket is pricing this contract at 6¢ (6% implied probability). Resolves November 30, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an energy ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Kyiv time.
| Platform | Cents | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6¢ | 6% | $115K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an energy ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Kyiv time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An energy ceasefire refers to a mutually agreed arrangement under which both Russia and Ukraine commit to suspend strikes on at least one specific, defined category of the other country's energy infrastructure (e.g. oil refineries, gas processing plants, power plants, electricity transmission and distribution facilities, oil and gas pipelines, fuel storage facilities, or oil and gas export terminals), regardless of whether the two countries' commitments cover the same category. A category need not cover all such infrastructure in the other country to qualify; a category limited to a defined geographic area will be sufficient. The agreement must be either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A claim by a third party, including the President of the United States, that Russia and Ukraine have agreed to such an arrangement will not qualify without such confirmatio