Polymarket is pricing this contract at 2¢ (2% implied probability). Resolves January 1, 2027. On October 21, 2026, Marathon Fusion announced that it had "demonstrated high-rate alchemy," turning mercury into stable gold using fusion neutrons and "beating CERN's record by a factor of 10." (see: https://x.com/MarathonFusion/status/2113001073019662481) This market will reso
| Platform | Cents | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 2¢ | 2% | $15K |
On October 21, 2026, Marathon Fusion announced that it had "demonstrated high-rate alchemy," turning mercury into stable gold using fusion neutrons and "beating CERN's record by a factor of 10." (see: https://x.com/MarathonFusion/status/2113001073019662481) This market will resolve to "Yes" if high-rate alchemy is confirmed through at least one of the qualifying confirmation methods listed below by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "High-rate alchemy" refers to the experimental production of stable gold-197 from mercury using neutrons generated by deuterium-tritium fusion reactions (including deuterium-tritium neutron generators) at an average rate of more than 800,000 gold-197 atoms per second. For reference, CERN's ALICE collaboration reported a maximum rate of approximately 89,000 gold nuclei per second in May 2025. The production rate will be calculated as the total number of gold-197 atoms produced by the irradiation, including gold-197 resulting from the decay of mercury-197 created during the irradiation, divided by the total duration of the neutron irradiation. Confi