Polymarket is pricing this contract at 7¢ (7% implied probability). Resolves December 31, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jimmy Lai is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
| Platform | Cents | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 7¢ | 7% | $3K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jimmy Lai is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Lai is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Lai is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Lai to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Extradition of Lai to another country where he remains in custody will also not count. Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.