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Government shutdown by December 12?

Politics Resolves December 13, 2026 Polymarket

Polymarket is pricing this contract at 41¢ (41% implied probability). Resolves December 13, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government enters a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.

Live price

PlatformCentsImpliedVolume
Polymarket41¢41%$29K

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government enters a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A U.S. federal government shutdown is considered to have gone into effect when there is a lapse in appropriations that results in federal government agencies suspending non-excepted operations, typically including the furlough of non-excepted federal employees. A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress fails to enact, or the President fails to sign into law, legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse. A lapse in appropriations where no federal agencies cease or suspend non-excepted operations will not qualify as a shutdown. Partial shutdowns qualify. A shutdown affecting one or more, but not all, federal agencies constitutes a shutdown. The following will qualify as a shutdown: - An official directive from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) ordering heads of affected agencies to execute shutdown plans (e.g., an instruction to "execute plans for an order

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