Polymarket is pricing this contract at 74¢ (74% implied probability). Resolves January 1, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the national government of any European Union member state officially attributes a qualifying attack on its territory to Russia between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
| Platform | Cents | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 74¢ | 74% | $3K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the national government of any European Union member state officially attributes a qualifying attack on its territory to Russia between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying attack is an act of sabotage or arson, the placement or detonation of an explosive or incendiary device, or a physical attack on persons or property, carried out within the territory of an EU member state on or after September 1, 2026. The following will not qualify: cyber operations; electronic interference such as GPS jamming or spoofing; espionage, surveillance, or reconnaissance; disinformation or influence operations; violations of airspace or territorial waters; drones, missiles, or other munitions launched by Russian armed forces, whether or not they are intercepted; and threats or plots that were not carried out. A qualifying attribution is a public statement by an authorized representative of the relevant country acting in an official capacity stating that the attack was carried out, ordered, or directed by the Russian state, including its armed forces or intelligence serv