Polymarket is pricing this contract at 12¢ (12% implied probability). Resolves July 1, 2027. In March 2026, Brazil imposed a 12% export tax on crude oil through Provisional Measure (MP) 1.340/2026.
| Platform | Cents | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 12¢ | 12% | $18K |
In March 2026, Brazil imposed a 12% export tax on crude oil through Provisional Measure (MP) 1.340/2026. The tax has since been extended by resolutions of the Foreign Trade Chamber (Gecex-Camex), and oil producers are challenging it in court. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (STF) or Superior Court of Justice (STJ) issues a qualifying ruling on the merits that the Crude Oil Export Tax, or its collection, is unconstitutional or otherwise unlawful, in whole or in part, unless the ruling leaves no taxpayer able to recover any amount paid under the tax by the specified date, 11:59 PM Brasília time (BRT). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The “Crude Oil Export Tax” is the federal export tax (Imposto de Exportação) on crude petroleum oils (NCM 2709) imposed by MP 1.340/2026 and continued by Gecex Resolution No. 938/2026 and subsequent Gecex-Camex resolutions, including any act that extends, renews, or modifies it. Changes to the tax’s rate will not affect this market; a ruling concerning the tax at any rate, for any part of the period during which it was collected, will qualify. Only the following rulings will qualify: (i) at the STF, a de