StreetSpread · Politics · Polymarket

Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?

Politics Resolves December 31, 2026 Polymarket

Polymarket is pricing this contract at 8¢ (8% implied probability). Resolves December 31, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally recognizes the Republic of Somaliland as a sovereign state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Live price

PlatformCentsImpliedVolume
Polymarket8%$163K

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally recognizes the Republic of Somaliland as a sovereign state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only formal recognition of Somaliland will qualify. Statements/actions which acknowledge the Republic of Somaliland, or change its diplomatic status with the U.S. but do not formally recognize the country as a sovereign state will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trade on Polymarket →
StreetSpread aggregates real-time odds across Kalshi, Polymarket, DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, and Fanatics. Prices update every ~30 seconds via WebSocket. Back to live tracker · Join the app waitlist.

Follow us: X (@thestreetspread) · Instagram (@thestreetspread) · LinkedIn