Polymarket is pricing this contract at 8¢ (8% implied probability). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially announces that at least some territory on the Chagos Islands will come under US sovereignty by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
| Platform | Cents | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 8¢ | 8% | $788 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially announces that at least some territory on the Chagos Islands will come under US sovereignty by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of any of the Chagos Archipelago from either the United Kingdom or Mauritius to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system. Basing rights, military leases, or access agreements alone do not constitute sovereignty transfer. An official announcement made by the United States and either the United Kingdom or Mauritius that territory within the Chagos Archipelago will come under US sovereignty will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur or if such announcement is pending ratification, parliamentary approval, or other conditional legislative steps. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not. The resolution source for this market will be official information