Polymarket is pricing this contract at 8¢ (8% implied probability). Resolves December 31, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly opens either preorders or full customer orders for any van-like autonomous electric vehicle on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
| Platform | Cents | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 8¢ | 8% | $32K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly opens either preorders or full customer orders for any van-like autonomous electric vehicle on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region. Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify. The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count. Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count. This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.