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Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by December 31?

Technology Resolves December 31, 2026 Polymarket

Polymarket is pricing this contract at 12¢ (12% implied probability). Resolves December 31, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Live price

PlatformCentsImpliedVolume
Polymarket12¢12%$3K

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify. This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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