StreetSpread · Politics · Market

Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 60 in Jul 2026?

Politics Resolves July 31, 2026 26 days to close Cross-platform

Kalshi prices this contract at 38¢, while Polymarket has it at 36¢. That's a 5.0¢ spread between the two prediction markets. Resolves July 31, 2026 (~26 days).

The two prediction markets disagree by 5.0¢ on this contract — that's a meaningful divergence worth investigating.

Live prices

PlatformCentsImpliedVolume
Kalshi38¢38%$3K
Polymarket36¢36%$5K
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