Polymarket is pricing this contract at 91¢ (91% implied probability). Resolves November 3, 2026. The 2026 midterm elections for the US Senate is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
| Platform | Cents | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 91¢ | 91% | $3K |
The 2026 midterm elections for the US Senate is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Republicans hold fewer seats in the Senate for any state that Trump won in the 2024 US presidential election as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Initial seat counts will be based on the composition of the US Senate as of November 2, 2026, 11:59PM ET. This market's resolution will be solely based on the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate for any state won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election. The loss of particular seat will not count towards a resolution for this market; only the total number of seats held by the Republican Party in a given state will be considered. (e.g. The loss of one of a state's seats by the Republican Party followed by the gain of the other seat would not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".) A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market&