Polymarket is pricing this contract at 12¢ (12% implied probability). Resolves December 1, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets Saudi Arabia through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, Arabia Standard Time (AST).
| Platform | Cents | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 12¢ | 12% | $19K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets Saudi Arabia through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at Saudi Arabia. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military act