Polymarket is pricing this contract at 4¢ (4% implied probability). Resolves December 31, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk officially announces that he is running for U.S.
| Platform | Cents | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 4¢ | 4% | $21K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk officially announces that he is running for U.S. President in the 2028 presidential election between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Elon Musk will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed a nomination to run, or whether he actually files a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Elon Musk (ex: via speech, social media, etc.) or his official or legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.