Polymarket is pricing this contract at 4¢ (4% implied probability). Resolves December 31, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, any individual serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S.
| Platform | Cents | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 4¢ | 4% | $322K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, any individual serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison, and the cause of that incarceration is attributed to information contained in files related to Jeffrey Epstein released by the federal government on or after December 19, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying incarceration must be caused by information included in Epstein-related files released on or after December 19, 2025. The cause of incarceration may be established through official charging documents, court rulings, sentencing statements, or through a clear consensus of credible reporting attributing the incarceration to information contained in those released files. Incarceration driven by information that was publicly known before December 19, 2025, or by reasons unrelated to the content of the released Epstein-related files, will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official court records or government statements, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.