Polymarket is pricing this contract at 18¢ (18% implied probability). Resolves July 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the winner of the 2026 FIFA World Cup is a nation that has never previously won a FIFA World Cup.
| Platform | Cents | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 18¢ | 18% | $747K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the winner of the 2026 FIFA World Cup is a nation that has never previously won a FIFA World Cup. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purpose of this market, the nations that have previously won a FIFA World Cup are: Uruguay, Italy, Germany, Brazil, England, Argentina, France, and Spain. If the 2026 champion is any nation other than these eight, this market resolves “Yes”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.