Polymarket is pricing this contract at 24¢ (24% implied probability). Resolves January 1, 2027. Israel is scheduled to hold Knesset elections on October 27, 2026.
| Platform | Cents | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 24¢ | 24% | $5K |
Israel is scheduled to hold Knesset elections on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Knesset votes to express confidence in a new government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A vote will qualify only if it passes and the new government is constituted. A vote that is held but fails will not qualify. A motion of no confidence in an existing government will not qualify. The continuation in office of the outgoing caretaker government will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Knesset; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.