Polymarket is pricing this contract at 48¢ (48% implied probability). Resolves January 1, 2027. This market asks whether Vitalik’s anonymous Ethereum writing, announced on June 22, is found and confirmed to be correctly identified by end of year.
| Platform | Cents | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 48¢ | 48% | $140 |
This market asks whether Vitalik’s anonymous Ethereum writing, announced on June 22, is found and confirmed to be correctly identified by end of year. Vitalik’s announcement post: https://x.com/VitalikButerin/status/2069080988097876084 (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vitalik+Tweet.png) This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vitalik Buterin explicitly confirms, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms, that a specific, published document has been correctly identified as one he authored anonymously, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying confirmations include: - Vitalik directly acknowledges the document has been discovered and correctly attributed to him (e.g., via X post, blog, or interview). - Credible reporting that cites Vitalik confirming the attribution. - Any public statement from Vitalik indicating the challenge has been solved with the correct document identified. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Vitalik Buterin (https://x.com/VitalikButerin), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.