Polymarket is pricing this contract at 10¢ (10% implied probability). Resolves December 31, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S.
| Platform | Cents | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 10¢ | 10% | $64K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action. Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.