Polymarket is pricing this contract at 70¢ (70% implied probability). Resolves August 20, 2026. On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement (the MOU), including a 60-day negotiation period toward a “final deal”, extendable by mutual consent.
| Platform | Cents | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 70¢ | 70% | $175K |
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement (the MOU), including a 60-day negotiation period toward a “final deal”, extendable by mutual consent. This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the United States and Iran publicly and officially announce an extension of the 60-day negotiation period initiated by the MOU between market creation and August 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of a present extension of the 60-day negotiation period, a previously-unannounced prior extension of the 60-day negotiation period, or definitive agreement to extend the 60-day negotiation period. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify an extension of the 60-day negotiation period initiated by the MOU. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an extension, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. However, the announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU by name. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incid