Polymarket is pricing this contract at 7¢ (7% implied probability). Resolves December 31, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S.
| Platform | Cents | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 7¢ | 7% | $13K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.