StreetSpread · Politics · Polymarket

U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?

Politics Resolves July 31, 2026 Polymarket

Polymarket is pricing this contract at 18¢ (18% implied probability). Resolves July 31, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S.

Live price

PlatformCentsImpliedVolume
Polymarket18¢18%$2K

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participate on the ground in an anti-cartel operation or conduct a kinetic strike directed against a cartel on foreign soil between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count. Only direct U.S. participation, confirmed by the U.S. Government or by an overwhelming consensus of reporting, will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government; however, an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.

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