Polymarket is pricing this contract at 3¢ (3% implied probability). Resolves August 31, 2026. If the SpaceX Starship successfully launches from a launch pad in Florida by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
| Platform | Cents | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 3¢ | 3% | $100 |
If the SpaceX Starship successfully launches from a launch pad in Florida by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any renaming of the Starship vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome. The resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceX, however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.