Polymarket is pricing this contract at 24¢ (24% implied probability). Resolves July 31, 2026. If the 13th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
| Platform | Cents | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 24¢ | 24% | $17K |
If the 13th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.