Polymarket is pricing this contract at 10¢ (10% implied probability). Resolves January 1, 2029. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET.
| Platform | Cents | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 10¢ | 10% | $198 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify. A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur. The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.