Polymarket is pricing this contract at 14¢ (14% implied probability). Resolves January 1, 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if a ceasefire agreement between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
| Platform | Cents | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 14¢ | 14% | $425K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a ceasefire agreement between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. All listed countries/parties must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic a