StreetSpread · Technology · Polymarket

Will the next Qwen Max model (3.9+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?

Technology Resolves July 1, 2027 Polymarket

Polymarket is pricing this contract at 96¢ (96% implied probability). Resolves July 1, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Alibaba Qwen Max model (3.9+) added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first app

Live price

PlatformCentsImpliedVolume
Polymarket96¢96%$3K

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Alibaba Qwen Max model (3.9+) added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Qwen" and "Max," be the flagship model of Alibaba's core Qwen Max tier, and be designated as version 3.9 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.9 or higher named in the same manner as Qwen3.7-Max or Qwen3.8-Max-Preview would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Qwen4-Max, while models whose name does not include "Max" or which retain a version designation below 3.9, such as Qwen3.8-Max, including its stable, open-weight, or snapshot re-releases, or Qwen3.8-Max-Preview, will not qualify. Derivative lines such as VL, Coder, Omni, or other specialized variants, such as qwen-vl-max, will not qualify. Results from t

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