Polymarket is pricing this contract at 16¢ (16% implied probability). Resolves July 1, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if a new Government of Israel is officially sworn in by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
| Platform | Cents | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 16¢ | 16% | $89K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a new Government of Israel is officially sworn in by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” To qualify, a newly formed government, headed by a Prime Minister and composed of appointed ministers must be sworn in before the Knesset within this market's timeframe. Only a government formed as a result of the 2026 Knesset election or any subsequent election will qualify. Caretaker or transitional governments, including the outgoing government continuing to serve in a caretaker capacity, will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel or the Knesset; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.