Polymarket is pricing this contract at 37¢ (37% implied probability). Resolves December 1, 2026. This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.8+) is made available to the general public.
| Platform | Cents | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 37¢ | 37% | $14K |
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.8+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.8 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or Grok 4.7 would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.8 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.8, such as Grok 4.7 (released September 21, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via