Polymarket is pricing this contract at 2¢ (2% implied probability). Resolves January 1, 2027. If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes".
| Platform | Cents | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 2¢ | 2% | $315K |
If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.