Polymarket is pricing this contract at 54¢ (54% implied probability). Resolves July 31, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russian government or aviation authorities suspend departures and arrivals at all three of the following Moscow airports at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
| Platform | Cents | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 54¢ | 54% | $9K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russian government or aviation authorities suspend departures and arrivals at all three of the following Moscow airports at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The relevant airports are: - Sheremetyevo (SVO); - Domodedovo (DME); and - Vnukovo (VKO). A qualifying suspension refers to official flight restrictions suspending both departures and arrivals at all three airports for any amount of time. Such suspensions may be issued as one singular order or separate notices, provided suspensions of arrivals and departures are concurrently in effect at all three airports between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Suspensions described as "temporary restrictions on arrivals and departures" at the relevant airports by Russian authorities will qualify. The primary resolution source will be official communications from the Russian government and Russian aviation authorities, including the Rosaviatsiya federal air transport agency; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.