StreetSpread · Economics · Kalshi

Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q2 2026 be above 15%?

Economics Closes July 30, 2026 Kalshi

Kalshi's current ask is 7¢ for YES on this contract (7% implied). Closes July 30, 2026 (~24 days).

Live price

SideCentsImpliedVolume
Kalshi (yes ask)7%$9K
Kalshi (yes bid)2%
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