Polymarket is pricing this contract at 8¢ (8% implied probability). Resolves April 1, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jair Messias Bolsonaro receives a pardon (indulto or graça), commutation, or reprieve granted by the President of Brazil between market creation and March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
| Platform | Cents | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 8¢ | 8% | $3K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jair Messias Bolsonaro receives a pardon (indulto or graça), commutation, or reprieve granted by the President of Brazil between market creation and March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying grant of clemency means an act signed by the President of Brazil, or by whoever is lawfully exercising the office, that pardons, commutes, reduces, or suspends the execution of a sentence that had already been imposed on Jair Bolsonaro in a Brazilian criminal proceeding at the time the act was signed, and that has been published in the Diário Oficial da União between market creation and the deadline. Both signature and publication must occur within this period. A reprieve means a temporary suspension of the execution of an imposed sentence through presidential clemency. Full or partial relief from a custodial sentence or criminal fine will qualify; actual release from custody is not required. An anticipatory act of clemency covering conduct for which no sentence has been imposed will not qualify. A clemency act that is suspended, annulled, or declared unconstitutional will still qualify, prov