Polymarket is pricing this contract at 18¢ (18% implied probability). Resolves January 1, 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any Immigration and Customs Enforcement employee, or other federal immigration enforcement officer, for their involvement i
| Platform | Cents | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 18¢ | 18% | $3K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any Immigration and Customs Enforcement employee, or other federal immigration enforcement officer, for their involvement in the shooting of Oscar Belgal in the Marble Hill neighborhood of Manhattan, New York City on October 8, 2026, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.