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Will Trump deport less than 200k people?

Politics Resolves December 31, 2026 Polymarket

Polymarket is pricing this contract at 2¢ (2% implied probability). Resolves December 31, 2026. During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).

Live price

PlatformCentsImpliedVolume
Polymarket2%$8K

Resolution criteria

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.

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