StreetSpread · Politics · Polymarket

Will 0–1 of these AIPAC endorsees lose their primaries?

Politics Resolves August 4, 2026 Polymarket

Polymarket is pricing this contract at 4¢ (4% implied probability). Resolves August 4, 2026. The American Israel Public Affairs Committee is a major, bipartisan American lobbying group that advocates for a strong U.S.-Israel relationship and has endorsed candidates in the upcoming US Congressional primaries.

Live price

PlatformCentsImpliedVolume
Polymarket4%$1K

Resolution criteria

The American Israel Public Affairs Committee is a major, bipartisan American lobbying group that advocates for a strong U.S.-Israel relationship and has endorsed candidates in the upcoming US Congressional primaries. This market will resolve according to the number of candidates, among those listed below, who do not win their primaries, inclusive of any runoff elections. For purposes of this market, a candidate will be considered to have won a primary if they finish in a position to advance to the general election, even if they are not the top vote-earner or if no primary election is held because the candidate ran unopposed. This market will only consider the 34 candidates listed below. No subsequent endorsement, unendorsement, or withdrawal from a race will be relevant. The candidates and races are: Greg Stanton (Democratic, AZ-04), Abe Hamadeh (Republican, AZ-08), Juan Ciscomani (Republican, AZ-06), Ron Estes (Republican, KS-04), Tracey Mann (Republican, KS-01), Roger Marshall (Republican, KS-Sen), Derek Schmidt (Republican, KS-02), Tom Barrett (Republican, MI-07), Jack Bergman (Republican, MI-01), Bill Huizenga (Republican, MI-04), Lisa McClain (Republican, MI-09), John M

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